Global Fertility Decline: Causes and Effects
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children born per woman. This measure can help measure rates of fertility across the globe. In particular, global TFR has declined significantly in the last century, and this has been causing far-reaching negative economic and medical problems. Thus, researchers have been paying attention to possible causes of this decrease in fertility. Robert John Aitken, a professor at the Priority Research Centre in Reproductive Science at the University of Newcastle, recently conducted an opinion piece that analyzed the global trend in TFR while putting together some of its possible environmental, educational, and lifestyle causes.
The article provides important TFR data from the World Bank Data Catalog. Since the year 1970, the population growth rate has decreased from 2.1% to just over 1%, meaning that the population is barely replacing itself. Specifically, the TFR was about five children per woman in 1970, but has reduced to about two children per woman. This number is even lower in certain East Asian countries like Japan, and most countries are predicted to have a TFR lower than 2 children per woman before 2100 A.D. An interesting finding, however, is that the decrease of TFR was not caused by a lack of food or poverty. In fact, as the global food production increased, TFR has decreased. Because the results may be unexpected, there may be other factors contributing to decline in fertility.
The article provides important TFR data from the World Bank Data Catalog. Since the year 1970, the population growth rate has decreased from 2.1% to just over 1%, meaning that the population is barely replacing itself. Specifically, the TFR was about five children per woman in 1970, but has reduced to about two children per woman. This number is even lower in certain East Asian countries like Japan, and most countries are predicted to have a TFR lower than 2 children per woman before 2100 A.D. An interesting finding, however, is that the decrease of TFR was not caused by a lack of food or poverty. In fact, as the global food production increased, TFR has decreased. Because the results may be unexpected, there may be other factors contributing to decline in fertility.
Low birth rates, or TFR, can cause financial problems for society. For example, if fewer children are born, retired people will eventually outnumber young people in the workforce. This can place a burden on the government to support older citizens.
Image Source: Kampus Production
Some of the social factors Aitken proposes have to do with the nature of modern society. Children no longer die early from diseases, so women do not have to have as many. Additionally, large families are no longer needed for manual labor, and fewer children are easier to educate for college. In terms of education, the increased literacy of women and their role in the workforce has also decreased the TFR. Many women are choosing to pursue higher education, which delays having children or not having children at all. Moreover, female fertility begins to decline beginning at the age of 35, so more couples have been seeking Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ART), due to wanting children later in life.
In addition to the amount and timing of when to have children, environmental factors may also be harming the ability of couples to have children at all. Studies in the USA, Israel and other industrialized countries have shown that testosterone levels in men, as well as sperm count, have decreased along with the TFR. This may be due to the fact that sperm count naturally decreases with age, and the population of these countries is aging. However, other conditions, such as an increase in obesity, have been associated with low testosterone levels.
Lastly, the decrease in fertility has led to increased use of ART’s, such as In Vitro Fertilization (IVF), where sperm and egg are combined in a laboratory, and then implanted into the woman for a hopefully successful pregnancy. One possible consequence of using ART’s is the passing down of infertility genes to the next generation, meaning the children produced by ART’s may also have infertility problems in the future. However, increased need for ARTs will grow the industry, perhaps encouraging scientists to continue to develop reproductive technologies and help alleviate the problem of infertility.
Overall, the modern decrease in fertility across the globe will have to be addressed on multiple fronts. Increased awareness and attention by both the public and scientists will help societies face the possible negative consequences of population decline. Additionally, studying this phenomena gives people a different perspective on the nature of modern societies, and how they have developed and changed over time.
In addition to the amount and timing of when to have children, environmental factors may also be harming the ability of couples to have children at all. Studies in the USA, Israel and other industrialized countries have shown that testosterone levels in men, as well as sperm count, have decreased along with the TFR. This may be due to the fact that sperm count naturally decreases with age, and the population of these countries is aging. However, other conditions, such as an increase in obesity, have been associated with low testosterone levels.
Lastly, the decrease in fertility has led to increased use of ART’s, such as In Vitro Fertilization (IVF), where sperm and egg are combined in a laboratory, and then implanted into the woman for a hopefully successful pregnancy. One possible consequence of using ART’s is the passing down of infertility genes to the next generation, meaning the children produced by ART’s may also have infertility problems in the future. However, increased need for ARTs will grow the industry, perhaps encouraging scientists to continue to develop reproductive technologies and help alleviate the problem of infertility.
Overall, the modern decrease in fertility across the globe will have to be addressed on multiple fronts. Increased awareness and attention by both the public and scientists will help societies face the possible negative consequences of population decline. Additionally, studying this phenomena gives people a different perspective on the nature of modern societies, and how they have developed and changed over time.
Featured Image Source: Dominika Roseclay
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